That Guy

October 10, 2008

Greetings Blaze Nation,

I’m writing you today with a message of enormous import. Our Blazers look GREAT in our minds. The sexiest team by far when we use our imaginations and everyone fulfills their potential without hiccup. Brandon will not only be an all-star again, but probably the MVP of the game. LaMarcus will make good on his attempt to joining the midseason festivities, and also jump from 3rd in the voting to most improved player. Rudy will exhibit DKV Joventut-like domination and likely be the 6th man of the year. Jerryd will eventually see time as the starter as he defers his shoot first mentality and fits like a grandfather cog in Kevin Pritchard’s flawless machine. And most importantly, Gregory Oden will be the Finals MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and average 18 to 20 points per game to boot.

While those things could happen one day, that day is not today. And while shades of those realities could materialize this year, don’t be that lady or that guy in your fantasy draft that takes Oden in the first round. Don’t even take Brandon in round 1 and then get LaMarcus on the way back in the 2nd round. Unless you are in a 20 team league, moves like these will make you the laughingstock of your league. AND, you’re going to become slightly resentful when players drafted after Brandon and LA produce better #’s. The last thing that your Blazer Pride needs is to be upset when team ball gets in the way of individual statistics, the team gets a win, but Brandon and LaMarcus put up fantasy stats like 3rd or 4h rounders. You’ll start to want to trade them, but because you drafted them so high, and because they are “yours boys”, you’ll be unwilling to trade them without fleecing the other team for their 1st round pick or their sleeper pick that actually panned out.

Moral of the story, don’t reach for your favorite Blazer. It isn’t at all that I don’t think these guys will crush this year, because I do think they will. But rather I think that you can have them later than your PDX loyalty will let you believe. I think they will put up surprising stats, but if you reach in the 3rd for Blazer X, and get a 4th round talent in the 4th round, then you’re worse off than if you get a 3rd round talent in the 3rd and still get your Blazer X, but in the 4th where he is valued

Brandon late in the 2nd round is acceptable, but there are 24 other guys that will put up better stat lines, so if you’re considering him late in the 2nd, then pass, get a higher ranked player in the 2nd, and Brandon will still be there for you early in the 3rd round. If you draft early in the 2nd round, I recommend hoping he’ll still be there late in the 3rd. Early in the 2nd is too big of a reach for Brandon, and if you need your Blazer fix, then get one of the bigs late in the 3rd. But guys like Bosh, Granger, Deron, Josh Smith or Nash are too steady/too good to pass up for a homer reach.

Oden in the 3rd is a huge risk because he’s green, but he will log defensive #’s like he were Patrick Ewing at Georgetown. People will say he’s a injury risk, but I challenge you to find me a Center that isn’t an injury risk. They don’t exist. They never have. At least we know Gregory works his butt off to stay on the court or get back on it.

LaMarcus is the big stumper in the lot. If you land him in the 4th, you might have you the steal of the draft. But if you draft him in the 3rd for fear of missing out on him later, just be prepared to hate yourself when Al Jefferson, Gerald Wallace, Rudy Gay, Andre Igoudala, and David West put up more fantasy friendly #’s. Last thing: just don’t take Rudy, Jerryd, Travis, Martell, Stevie Blake, Sergio, Luke Jackson or any other Blazer not a member of the big-3 sooner than the 6th round. Get a starting 5 at least, then follow standard role player protocol with the remaining Blazers that you feel you just gotta have on your squad.

p.s. as an avid Blazer junky, I will be ignoring every that I just wrote. After selecting Baron Davis in the 1st round, I will be reaching for Brandon in the 2nd, taking Oden or LA in the 3rd, and I might take Rudy in the 5th… Oh yeah, and as a UO alum, I’ll be drafting Luke Jackson in the 7th even though he likely won’t make the final roster cuts, Aaron Brooks will be my back-up PG (Houston really ought to start him over Skip), and I’ll look for Maarty, Malik or Bryce to fill my final roster spot.


That Guy

One Response to “That Guy”

  1. petejn said

    I really, really, really hope that you were joking about AB starting over Skip.
    The End.

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